module 1 of 7 · 35 min

Regression

Predict continuous outcomes using simple baselines before complex models.

Explain Regression clearlyImplement a small Regression exampleEvaluate whether Regression improves a simpler baselineIdentify failure cases and operational constraints
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mental model

start with the idea before the implementation.

Regression estimates how inputs relate to a numeric target under an explicit loss function.
core concepts

the mechanisms you need to reason about.

01

Linear regression

Linear regression is studied through intuition implementation evidence and trade-offs. The goal is to be able to explain the mechanism and verify it with a concrete test rather than only repeat a definition.

02

Loss functions

Loss functions is studied through intuition implementation evidence and trade-offs. The goal is to be able to explain the mechanism and verify it with a concrete test rather than only repeat a definition.

03

Regularization

Regularization is studied through intuition implementation evidence and trade-offs. The goal is to be able to explain the mechanism and verify it with a concrete test rather than only repeat a definition.

04

Residual analysis

Residual analysis is studied through intuition implementation evidence and trade-offs. The goal is to be able to explain the mechanism and verify it with a concrete test rather than only repeat a definition.

engineering lab

turn the lesson into evidence.

LAB 1

fit a mean baseline and linear model

Build the smallest version first. Record the input, expected output, measured result and one failure you discovered.

LAB 2

plot residuals

Build the smallest version first. Record the input, expected output, measured result and one failure you discovered.

LAB 3

compare MAE and RMSE

Build the smallest version first. Record the input, expected output, measured result and one failure you discovered.

knowledge checks

prove you can explain and decide.

1

identify leakage

ask cortex to test me →
2

interpret coefficients carefully

ask cortex to test me →
3

select a useful metric

ask cortex to test me →
failure modes

what usually goes wrong.

risk

extrapolation

Detect this early by defining a baseline, a measurable signal and a condition that would cause you to stop or redesign the approach.

risk

target leakage

Detect this early by defining a baseline, a measurable signal and a condition that would cause you to stop or redesign the approach.

risk

ignoring heteroscedasticity

Detect this early by defining a baseline, a measurable signal and a condition that would cause you to stop or redesign the approach.

proof of learning

Create a short Regression engineering note with one working artifact one metric one failure case and one decision about when you would or would not use it.

Save the result in your portfolio or project repository. A strong learning artifact should make your assumptions, metrics and failure analysis visible.